Brexit: A future history
Often people comment that "of course I knew that would happen", and as they say hindsight is 20/20 so I've decided to write a future history of Britain.
Obviously I'm aware like all chaotic systems like the weather there is certainly no true prediction however I've made references to events and cross-linked where possible.
What is this based on?
I've experienced things from lots of perspectives. I've come out pretty much unqualified directly into working in a factory at 18, I've self taught, I've worked in the public and private section including local government and the Welsh Assembly Government. I've been through numerous public sector and private sector restructures and seen the effects they have on moral and people.
And as an analogy Britain is an organization, and we are all it's employees and Brexit is nothing more than a management restructure on a national or international scale.
So you're a remoaner then?
Since the referendum was announced given that this is a business decision I've had the following attitude towards Brexit.
We should study the situation carefully and make a business decision based on all factors with the best judgement possible. Should we decide to leave we should do so calmly and professionally.
........................................
Britain votes to leave the European Union
[Didn't predict]
Politicians confirm that some of benefits of leaving the European Union are not quite what people were lead to believe. Brexit voters internalise the issues and change their stance on the issues to support their decision rather than turn against it.
[Predicted]
The pound devalues against the dollar and Euro in a meaningful but not catastrophic way, small changes are noticeable such as the costs of holidays when buying things abroad or when exchanging money (1)
[Predicted]
The Leave vote is misreported time and again as being "over half of the country" when it was in actual fact just over a 1/3 of the electorate and an even smaller fraction of the country as a whole.
[Predicted]
There is no immediate disaster. Brexit voters incorrectly think that the trivial issues currently faced and the devaluation of the £ are the extent of the repercussions of Brexit. This strengthens their belief that their vote was correct and the "doom mongering" was just that.
[Predicted]
Nigel Farage is made a more important figure, his political capital increases and he manages to continue to meddle with both British and European politics whilst having no responsibility and the citizens of Britain and the wider EU having no recourse against him.
[Predicted]
Nicola Sturgeon uses Brexit to strengthen her fight for Scottish independence. She tries everything to secure Scotland's place as an EU member state, to use a veto against Britain leaving the EU and is slapped down by Westminster. The British (English) public see this as a failure for Sturgeon.
Brexiteers start to see this as a time to take control back of Scotland.
[Predicted]
British companies made cheaper by the weak pound are bought by foreign investors
[Predicted]
References: See Odeon and ARM if you're one of the Brexiteer who say "large companies are bought and sold all the time" see the comments in the Forbes and other papers "Brexit Made ARM Holdings A Bargain For Softbank"
Britain begins to alienate foreign workers.
[Predicted]
Companies and partners of Britain [such as Japan in this letter] start to point out the benefits to being in the EU and start to make noises about leaving in favour of moving to an EU member state to continue operations with partner states. No actual moves are made by business which leads Brexit voters see this as more "doom mongering" as they cannot see any change. Businesses wait to see what the outcome is of the exit process.
[Predicted]
The "troublesome" European Laws are found to be complex and costly to review so rather than improving these laws, they are "imported" as is into the British legal system with the idea of reviewing them later
[Predicted]
A hard Brexit is announced. Britain decides to trade it's access to the single market and to the ability for it's citizens to move freely and work in European countries for "tighter boarder control". Investors are surprised by this - and cannot understand the benefit to Britain for this sell off of access to the single market and the £ devalues further.
[Partially predicted - I thought we'd have had a transition deal, leading to a full Brexit in 5 years]
Update 11/10/16: Looks like Hard Brexit is being realised as a bad idea.
Britain states that it's looking for the "best and brightest" from abroad to work here. The British public rejoice at this, with only a small number wondering why the country wishes to give the highly paid, highly skilled jobs to people abroad but has such anger against those working in low skilled, low paid jobs.
[Predicted]
The bureaucratic overhead of Brexit starts to ramp up as David Davis hires a team of hundreds of staffers to work on the run up to Brexit.
[Predicted]
...............and then...............
The pound continues to decline to $1.22, however the effects are seen in still limited ways by the British public. Companies eye Britain nervously but little happens.
[2016]
Uncertainty becomes rife within the population of EU citizens, relationships become strained as the prospect of couples being separated by Brexit starts to become a possibility as the Government makes no concrete promises for their future in Britain.
Foreign workers across all sectors including British schools and the NHS lose confidence in their future, moral becomes low and affects the service received by British citizens. European citizens no longer plan to buy houses within the UK or invest in its future.
** update: this is already being reinforced today by Liam Fox EU nationals in UK one of 'main cards' in Brexit negotiations
[2016]
Article 50 is invoked, the announcement drops the value of the £ further in the same magnitude as when the hard Brexit was announced as nothing has in effect changed.
[2017]
It becomes quickly apparent that Britain will lose access to the single market, Japanese companies begin to make plans to move certain operations
[2017]
European cities such as Berlin and Barcelona begin to offer innovative business hosting options to British startups in medical and technology sectors that was first considered in 2016 when Angela Merkel started to eye British talent. Promises are made about the safety of these startups by the German leader regardless of the Brexit outcome.
[2017]
The best and brightest of Britain angry with the racism becoming prevalent in Britain and the prospect of being trapped in Britain being to eye the option of moving operations to mainland Europe.
[2017]
As business mobility increases with technological advances countries begin to act like a businesses and business like employees, able to move easily to where they can get best value. Britain becomes a less logical option. Foreign workers begin to become disenfranchised with the British attitude. Britain starts to hemorrhage talent to mainland Europe.
[2017]
The north / south divide where talent moves south where "it's still warm" in terms of innovation simply continues out of the country.
[2018]
The clear benefits of Brexit become muddled, noone can remember why we are leaving, Brexit voters become impossible to pin down on their reasons for voting leave. Any money saved on EU fees is now greatly exceeded by the legal and bureaucratic costs of Brexit negotiations.
[2018]
It becomes apparent that the financial services sector cannot operate as it has previously. Brexit voters see The City as a bunch of rich tax avoiders and are happy to lose them. The tax revenues paid by the city in FY14/15 amounted to £66.5bn, the government panics at the potential loss of such large tax revenues.
The citizens of London begin to fight back against the madness of the current situation demanding a greater voice given that London pays almost a third of UK tax however the options are limit, there is no longer any going back.
[2018]
International investment in Britain slows as the outcome of the Brexit negotiations begins.
[2018]
Internal national issues such as obesity, education and public transport continue to be suppressed and ignored as the country's focus remains on Brexit negotiations. New policies are all designed with the focus of excluding foreign nationals regardless of the benefits or issues caused.
[2018]
Brexit occurs, certain concessions were made, all European laws that were imported were never changed, the overhead too great so no benefits were realised. The British see no benefits, it becomes difficult to unpick how much better or worse off the country would have been if we hadn't left however the general feeling is that we're in for an uncertain future.
[2019]
Immigration targets are ignored, becoming the least of the country's worries.
[2019]
Businesses start to move head quarters to mainland Europe. Japan cites the reasons in the warning letter it wrote in 2016. 440,000 jobs are at risk from Japanese companies alone.
[2020]
Tech centers in start up cities such as Germany and Barcelona as backed by EU funding, no longer restricted by Britain being a member state. Britain can no longer keep up with technological advances.
[2020]
Citing the challenges made by Nicola Sturgen and how they were slapped down by Westminster Scotland begins to rally against the situation they find themselves in, a second referendum for an independent Scotland is called.
[2020]
Troubles begin in Ireland, options for the division of mainland Ireland and Northern Ireland are tabled. The government struggles to maintain peace whilst also coping with it's financial difficulties.
[2020]
Britain no longer has a veto on European matters. The EU army is created.
[2020]
Britain forges closer ties with China and the US. The British identity already highly influenced by the US at the time of the referendum becomes more Americanized.
[2021]
Obviously I'm aware like all chaotic systems like the weather there is certainly no true prediction however I've made references to events and cross-linked where possible.
What is this based on?
I've experienced things from lots of perspectives. I've come out pretty much unqualified directly into working in a factory at 18, I've self taught, I've worked in the public and private section including local government and the Welsh Assembly Government. I've been through numerous public sector and private sector restructures and seen the effects they have on moral and people.
And as an analogy Britain is an organization, and we are all it's employees and Brexit is nothing more than a management restructure on a national or international scale.
So you're a remoaner then?
Since the referendum was announced given that this is a business decision I've had the following attitude towards Brexit.
We should study the situation carefully and make a business decision based on all factors with the best judgement possible. Should we decide to leave we should do so calmly and professionally.
........................................
Britain votes to leave the European Union
[Didn't predict]
Politicians confirm that some of benefits of leaving the European Union are not quite what people were lead to believe. Brexit voters internalise the issues and change their stance on the issues to support their decision rather than turn against it.
[Predicted]
The pound devalues against the dollar and Euro in a meaningful but not catastrophic way, small changes are noticeable such as the costs of holidays when buying things abroad or when exchanging money (1)
[Predicted]
The Leave vote is misreported time and again as being "over half of the country" when it was in actual fact just over a 1/3 of the electorate and an even smaller fraction of the country as a whole.
[Predicted]
There is no immediate disaster. Brexit voters incorrectly think that the trivial issues currently faced and the devaluation of the £ are the extent of the repercussions of Brexit. This strengthens their belief that their vote was correct and the "doom mongering" was just that.
[Predicted]
Nigel Farage is made a more important figure, his political capital increases and he manages to continue to meddle with both British and European politics whilst having no responsibility and the citizens of Britain and the wider EU having no recourse against him.
[Predicted]
Nicola Sturgeon uses Brexit to strengthen her fight for Scottish independence. She tries everything to secure Scotland's place as an EU member state, to use a veto against Britain leaving the EU and is slapped down by Westminster. The British (English) public see this as a failure for Sturgeon.
Brexiteers start to see this as a time to take control back of Scotland.
[Predicted]
British companies made cheaper by the weak pound are bought by foreign investors
[Predicted]
References: See Odeon and ARM if you're one of the Brexiteer who say "large companies are bought and sold all the time" see the comments in the Forbes and other papers "Brexit Made ARM Holdings A Bargain For Softbank"
Britain begins to alienate foreign workers.
[Predicted]
Companies and partners of Britain [such as Japan in this letter] start to point out the benefits to being in the EU and start to make noises about leaving in favour of moving to an EU member state to continue operations with partner states. No actual moves are made by business which leads Brexit voters see this as more "doom mongering" as they cannot see any change. Businesses wait to see what the outcome is of the exit process.
[Predicted]
The "troublesome" European Laws are found to be complex and costly to review so rather than improving these laws, they are "imported" as is into the British legal system with the idea of reviewing them later
[Predicted]
A hard Brexit is announced. Britain decides to trade it's access to the single market and to the ability for it's citizens to move freely and work in European countries for "tighter boarder control". Investors are surprised by this - and cannot understand the benefit to Britain for this sell off of access to the single market and the £ devalues further.
[Partially predicted - I thought we'd have had a transition deal, leading to a full Brexit in 5 years]
Update 11/10/16: Looks like Hard Brexit is being realised as a bad idea.
Britain states that it's looking for the "best and brightest" from abroad to work here. The British public rejoice at this, with only a small number wondering why the country wishes to give the highly paid, highly skilled jobs to people abroad but has such anger against those working in low skilled, low paid jobs.
[Predicted]
The bureaucratic overhead of Brexit starts to ramp up as David Davis hires a team of hundreds of staffers to work on the run up to Brexit.
[Predicted]
...............and then...............
The pound continues to decline to $1.22, however the effects are seen in still limited ways by the British public. Companies eye Britain nervously but little happens.
[2016]
Uncertainty becomes rife within the population of EU citizens, relationships become strained as the prospect of couples being separated by Brexit starts to become a possibility as the Government makes no concrete promises for their future in Britain.
Foreign workers across all sectors including British schools and the NHS lose confidence in their future, moral becomes low and affects the service received by British citizens. European citizens no longer plan to buy houses within the UK or invest in its future.
** update: this is already being reinforced today by Liam Fox EU nationals in UK one of 'main cards' in Brexit negotiations
[2016]
Article 50 is invoked, the announcement drops the value of the £ further in the same magnitude as when the hard Brexit was announced as nothing has in effect changed.
[2017]
It becomes quickly apparent that Britain will lose access to the single market, Japanese companies begin to make plans to move certain operations
[2017]
European cities such as Berlin and Barcelona begin to offer innovative business hosting options to British startups in medical and technology sectors that was first considered in 2016 when Angela Merkel started to eye British talent. Promises are made about the safety of these startups by the German leader regardless of the Brexit outcome.
[2017]
The best and brightest of Britain angry with the racism becoming prevalent in Britain and the prospect of being trapped in Britain being to eye the option of moving operations to mainland Europe.
[2017]
As business mobility increases with technological advances countries begin to act like a businesses and business like employees, able to move easily to where they can get best value. Britain becomes a less logical option. Foreign workers begin to become disenfranchised with the British attitude. Britain starts to hemorrhage talent to mainland Europe.
[2017]
The north / south divide where talent moves south where "it's still warm" in terms of innovation simply continues out of the country.
[2018]
The clear benefits of Brexit become muddled, noone can remember why we are leaving, Brexit voters become impossible to pin down on their reasons for voting leave. Any money saved on EU fees is now greatly exceeded by the legal and bureaucratic costs of Brexit negotiations.
[2018]
It becomes apparent that the financial services sector cannot operate as it has previously. Brexit voters see The City as a bunch of rich tax avoiders and are happy to lose them. The tax revenues paid by the city in FY14/15 amounted to £66.5bn, the government panics at the potential loss of such large tax revenues.
The citizens of London begin to fight back against the madness of the current situation demanding a greater voice given that London pays almost a third of UK tax however the options are limit, there is no longer any going back.
[2018]
International investment in Britain slows as the outcome of the Brexit negotiations begins.
[2018]
Internal national issues such as obesity, education and public transport continue to be suppressed and ignored as the country's focus remains on Brexit negotiations. New policies are all designed with the focus of excluding foreign nationals regardless of the benefits or issues caused.
[2018]
Brexit occurs, certain concessions were made, all European laws that were imported were never changed, the overhead too great so no benefits were realised. The British see no benefits, it becomes difficult to unpick how much better or worse off the country would have been if we hadn't left however the general feeling is that we're in for an uncertain future.
[2019]
Immigration targets are ignored, becoming the least of the country's worries.
[2019]
Businesses start to move head quarters to mainland Europe. Japan cites the reasons in the warning letter it wrote in 2016. 440,000 jobs are at risk from Japanese companies alone.
[2020]
Tech centers in start up cities such as Germany and Barcelona as backed by EU funding, no longer restricted by Britain being a member state. Britain can no longer keep up with technological advances.
[2020]
Citing the challenges made by Nicola Sturgen and how they were slapped down by Westminster Scotland begins to rally against the situation they find themselves in, a second referendum for an independent Scotland is called.
[2020]
Troubles begin in Ireland, options for the division of mainland Ireland and Northern Ireland are tabled. The government struggles to maintain peace whilst also coping with it's financial difficulties.
[2020]
Britain no longer has a veto on European matters. The EU army is created.
[2020]
Britain forges closer ties with China and the US. The British identity already highly influenced by the US at the time of the referendum becomes more Americanized.
[2021]
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